Walt Disney World is having a gradual summer season. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are lifeless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nevertheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait occasions are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to drag new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the information and provide our theories for the summer season slowdown.
The one factor summer season hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first printed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the traditional knowledge that Memorial Day by means of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer season crowds weren’t as dangerous as previously. It provided a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Final yr, we adopted that up with Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. In order for you a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that submit. It explains the Star Wars Stoop, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this yr is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease to date in Summer season 2025.
You would possibly discover that the titles of those posts have ‘developed’ over time. The primary was that summer season shouldn’t be peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer season is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This development began a couple of decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with at the moment makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It’s because general Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even method its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)
In truth, Summer season 2025 has been so gradual to date that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. Once I first began engaged on this, there was a powerful case to be made that this summer season was proving to be the low season. The final week forged doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the truth that August and September will probably be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?
From my perspective, the reply is not any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer season is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose which means. So as a substitute we’ll persist with cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer season has turn into. It’s positively not peak season, but it surely additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.
Though June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll seemingly be surpassed by the following 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as an entire) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by larger highs to steadiness out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the best way of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we should always name summer season the “constantly uncomfortable season,” which is obscure but 100% correct.
Earlier than we talk about the potential explanations for why summer season is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait occasions. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.
June 2025 Crowds
June has been the slowest month of the yr thus far, with a median wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of two/10. As at all times, that’s an common, which nonetheless signifies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are doable for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights.
There have additionally been loads of days which were busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. In contrast, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait occasions bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.
To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer season, it’s price declaring that whilst June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges to date in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two actually ‘lifeless’ days. In truth, if you happen to zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final yr. There have been many dates from final August by means of December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a job in September and October).
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. It is a development that’s a number of years working, however is amplified throughout summer season and minimized as soon as Occasion Season begins. As an entire, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).
If you happen to’re making an attempt to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer season, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer season journey, and you may most likely anticipate one thing comparable in June 2026. Aside from that, not likely a ton that’s price speaking about. Summer season is the least attention-grabbing season for crowds because it tends to be probably the most constant.
Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when inspecting the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Yr’s, or in Winter 2026.
Mainly, any idea that might be contradicted by larger crowds in the previous couple of months or the following few months is off the desk (e.g. larger costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining fame). This will likely appear apparent, but it surely’s nonetheless essential as a result of discussing attendance has turn into a loaded challenge with many followers who wish to see their very own narratives bolstered. If you happen to consider that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s actually your prerogative, however X or Y as an evidence form of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’re going to, later this yr.
With that out of the best way, let’s speak theories as to why summer season is slower now than it was again within the day…
Epic Universe
We would as properly begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I consider it’s the #1 rationalization for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However reasonably, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these desirous to see Disney “taken down a notch.”
My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no internet influence on summer season crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some influence on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this yr. That’s unquestionably taking place. Nevertheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando resulting from Epic Universe and in addition visiting Walt Disney World consequently (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).
It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which facet is “successful,” as a result of now we have knowledge. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.
On a median day this summer season, Epic Universe is greeting fewer friends than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait occasions usually mirror excessive attendance, they will additionally mirror low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe to date: excessive wait occasions resulting from low throughput masking low attendance (bought all that?!).
We are able to additionally look to attend occasions knowledge for Common Orlando. The resort as an entire is about on par with final yr’s numbers, however if you happen to take a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer season), they’re down in Summer season 2025 versus final yr. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.
Worldwide Journey
In the course of the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen successful to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).
By way of the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new growth), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for current worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an influence” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.
What Disney expects going ahead is one thing much like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, knowledge reveals that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting an identical dynamic from Europe.
Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal knowledge reinforces), worldwide vacationers aren’t that vital of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed residence, it will be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s taking place. It’s a downtick of some proportion factors, at most.
It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Better Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, and so they’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger site visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger site visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month whole stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.
Worldwide site visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier report from the summer season of 2019, with a median of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. In fact, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was practically 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed by means of the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can let you know that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!
Financial Uncertainty
Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they must be “sensible about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place shoppers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their current earnings calls.)
Johnston mentioned that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that a lot of the value will increase had been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate needs to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of occasions.”
All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer season. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you can get the least expensive Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since not less than 2019. That’s form of loopy if you happen to understand how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. It is a development we anticipate to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting dearer and summer season additional lowering in 2026 and past.
On the similar time, we’ve repeatedly cited shopper confidence, financial anxiousness, ongoing inflation, Individuals being squeezed from each course, and extra as the explanation why Walt Disney World may see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we maintain listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American shopper is and the way “sturdy” spending stays.
It might appear that folks categorical worry, anxiousness, and considerations when surveyed about these items, however then behave in another way. (In truth, survey knowledge additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions concerning the broader financial system versus their very own funds–and has been for just a few years.) In different phrases, this can be a non-factor…for now?
Starlight Delays
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Night time Parade and/or Take a look at Observe opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Stoop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of friends postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor had been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They had been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an attention-grabbing subject in and of itself (one in every of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new sights has given friends chilly toes about planning round them), however past the scope of this submit.
Truthfully, I wouldn’t be stunned Walt Disney World noticed an even bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 resulting from Epic Universe (friends “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they are going to from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t assume the (constructive) Epic impact will probably be all that significant.
Shifting Schedules
Again after we first tackled this subject in 2017, shifting schedules was provided as one rationalization–extra faculties switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden incidence that started in the previous couple of years. College calendars have been trending this manner for a decade or extra.
I’m rather more receptive to this rationalization now. In truth, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that most likely isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer season is probably the most handy time for many households to go to resulting from college breaks. That is the rationale for summer season being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer season has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very motive.
Nevertheless, we might posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to drag their children out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from increasingly readers who do precisely this. We are able to’t again it up with laborious stats, but it surely passes the scent take a look at and appears extremely believable to us.
Equally as vital given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many Individuals have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work remains to be a viable choice for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new era of digital nomads.
As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in various locations we frequent. It was once the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates had been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this the very best rationalization, in our view, because it reveals the redistribution of attendance in motion.
Excessive Warmth & Humidity
Summer season being unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida shouldn’t be a current growth, so this shouldn’t be a year-over-year non-factor. Nevertheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures constantly within the 90s, with “looks like” temperatures properly above 100º.
In accordance with the corporate, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a sizzling subject a pair years in the past that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand and unseasonably dangerous climate, even by summer season in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on just a few extra events.
It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first motive for decrease attendance. Provided that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this rationalization strikes us as believable. That is enjoying out once more in Summer season 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.
Relating to climate, the massive wild card now could be consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down boundaries, and what was once an abstraction within the textual content of varied books and sources is made plainly seen and introduced in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other solely to see your favourite vlogger sweat their manner round World Showcase. The previous you is likely to be extra more likely to dismiss, questioning simply how dangerous it might be. The latter is rather more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag children out of college, and there’s a state of affairs the place households have elevated data coupled with decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip college would possibly merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
This extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep residence when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. A few of them would possibly bear the climate if Disney provides them a motive to take action, as was once the case with summer season celebrations. That hasn’t been true for just a few years, although. On high of that, I’d hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants shouldn’t be suited to summer season climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning in the course of the summer season months (disproportionate to native Floridians).
This comfort-seeking conduct additionally explains why looks like crowds or congestion are decrease in the course of the summer season. Whereas within the winter friends would possibly wander round having fun with the environment of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly may imply that wait occasions are elevated relative to attendance in the course of the summer season months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks usually look lifeless from June by means of September even when the wait occasions don’t at all times mirror that.
Shorter Hours
I really feel like a damaged report about this, however again after we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours had been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each night time, with night Additional Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.
With the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer season warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We may begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a straightforward solution to mitigate the excessive warmth.
Fortunately, Starlight will deliver again these 11 pm closings, but it surely’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is at present open for an hour after sundown. There’s a motive why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra well-liked in the course of the summer season months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks as if a vicious cycle for summer season park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.
No Particular Occasions
Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the shortage of particular occasions to prop up summer season numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can not schedule runDisney races or outside ESPN Vast World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s seemingly that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees an identical summer season slowdown.
It’s as soon as once more Food plan EPCOT in the course of the summer season, with that being telegraphed far upfront for 2025. (Final yr, not less than there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be honest, there may be GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer season because the summer season push, however that’s largely advertising. It’s not just like the summer season ‘spectaculars’ of outdated, and I can not think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer season. (The reductions are a distinct story.)
All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new competition at EPCOT or a revival of Summer season Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer season an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Perhaps we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.
Minimal Mitigation
I additionally really feel like a damaged report about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its current expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the yr. There’s little shade providing a solution to escape the warmth or summer season showers.
It’s truthfully mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely accomplished nothing when it comes to mitigation measures, however they’ve as a substitute actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The preferred and latest areas of the parks–the locations individuals spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable in the course of the summer season has seemingly contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less snug at Walt Disney World.
There are seemingly different variables I’m overlooking that might assist clarify why summer season attendance has been down. Different elements is likely to be at play, and in combination could have a noticeable influence, however I believe these variables could be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
In the end, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average to date in Summer season 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to reasonable. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a current growth. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for just a few years pre-COVID closures, and that development has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait occasions we’re at present seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since not less than 2019 may reverse the development. It’ll be attention-grabbing to see which new levers they pull for 2026.
Earlier than you learn all of this and assume that summer season all of a sudden appears like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. If you happen to beforehand dominated out a summer season trip to Walt Disney World, think about the chance that you just did so for good motive. I’m not saying you’ll have a foul time–as we regularly say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is healthier than an ideal day at residence.” That’s true as at all times.
What I’ll say is that no matter “features” you’ll expertise throughout summer season at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions will probably be worn out by subjectively inferior all the pieces else. If you happen to pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I’d select the latter with out hesitation. I’d take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular taking place. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by all the above, it will appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.
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Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer season crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree solely, and assume it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits in the course of the fall months that observe this summer season dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions beneath within the feedback!
