Walt Disney World simply wrapped up the week that we forecast would have the best crowd ranges in Winter 2026 as a consequence of two holidays coinciding, which doesn’t at all times occur. Right here’s how our prediction carried out, how excessive wait instances really had been, plus what to anticipate going ahead. Spoiler alert: it was unhealthy. Worse than all different weeks of the final 52, minus one.
In case you’re new to winter crowds, the unhealthy information is that they’re unhealthy. Or not less than, worse than they was once. There’s this “sticky” notion of winter being the low season, which might be in equal elements as a consequence of old skool Walt Disney World followers remembering the great ole days, and informal vacationers to Florida intuitively pondering the Sunshine State and its seashores will likely be much less busy when temperatures are within the 40s to 60s. (The in a single day low was simply 36℉.)
That notion could be correct about Florida as a complete, however not Walt Disney World. That is exactly what prompted us to put in writing Winter (Nonetheless) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World. That was nothing new; it’s a development we first noticed means again in 2017. It’s solely been exacerbated post-COVID, as extra folks stay in Central Florida, work remotely, or in any other case journey through the first few months of the 12 months.
This dynamic is already enjoying out once more over the primary two months of 2026, with even the weeks exterior of the “worst” one being various levels of busy.
Talking of these ‘various levels,’ we predicted that ‘worst week’ of winter at Walt Disney World can be roughly February 13-22, 2026. That is hardly information–that window is at all times unhealthy.
The explanations for this had been documented in our checklist of the 10 Finest & Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2026 & 2027. Many college districts supply an extended weekend or full week off, for what’s broadly often called Mid-Winter Break (or “Ski Week”), anchored to Presidents’ Day. A number of main districts within the Northeast and Midwest additionally supply this whole week off. Loads of others have an extended weekend break only for the Presidents’ Day vacation.
That occurs yearly, however the distinctive wrinkle this 12 months, was Mardi Gras on February 17, 2026.
That doesn’t occur yearly; on the contrary, it final occurred in 2023 and resulted in a serious spike in crowds. Many main college districts in Louisiana have the week round Mardi Gras off, as do a handful of different college districts in coastal counties in Mississippi and Alabama.
The underside line is that that is nearly at all times the worst week within the two months previous to spring break season beginning, and it’s typically busier than the early spring breaks in March when Central Florida college districts are on recess. Though it’s not normally worse than Easter, we beforehand wrote that there’s an out of doors probability of that in 2026 because of the one-two punch of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras.
Final 12 months, we predicted that the worst week of winter can be February 14-23, 2025. In reviewing the wait instances knowledge, the worst dates had been really February 14-22, 2025. That stretch averaged 8/10 crowd ranges and 41 minute wait instances. (February twenty third, which was in our predicted vary, ended up at 34 minutes and 5/10 crowds.)
Against this, February thirteenth was a 2/10 crowd degree with 29 minute averages and February twenty fourth was a 1/10 crowd degree with 25 minute averages. Dates earlier than and after these ‘worst week’ dates had been comparable.
Again in 2024, heavy crowds began on February 15 and continued till February 26. Peak crowd ranges had been February 16-17 and February 19-21, all of which had 9/10 or 10/10 crowd ranges. For these maintaining rating at residence, our predictions carried out equally in 2024, simply as they did in 2023.
With that background set, right here’s a have a look at 2026 wait time stats, courtesy of thrill-data.com:
As you possibly can see from the above every day knowledge, the final week-plus noticed a pointy spike in crowds at Walt Disney World.
The worst dates inside that window had been February 13-21, 2026. The height inside that was February fifteenth, though February 14-17 noticed every day 9/10 crowd ranges.
It’s not shocking that Sunday, February twenty second noticed a drop-off and ended up being solely 4/10 crowds. That is one thing we persistently see on the tail finish of peak weeks as vacationers head residence. The development has grow to be more and more true on Saturdays, too. We nonetheless err on the facet of warning and proceed together with these comparatively much less busy weekends in most of our worst weeks, with a number of exceptions (post-Thanksgiving being the most important).
This stretch was busier than final 12 months, however not as unhealthy as 2023 or 2024. That’s the overall development, although, and not likely an apples to apples comparability because the swap from Genie+ to Lightning Lane Multi-Go in addition to the DAS crackdown have dramatically lowered standby line waits (to a far better diploma than Disney has reported attendance modifications).
To that time, it’s price reiterating that the above crowd ranges are as measured by wait instances knowledge. There isn’t a nice strategy to measure attendance, and to the extent we get knowledge for that, it’s annual.
In our intensive expertise, ‘seems like’ crowds or congestion are at all times worse throughout winter than spring via early fall. You may fairly safely anticipate disproportionate ‘seems like’ crowds from November via February; there are a number of causes for this, however climate is the cleanest clarification.
The rationale congestion isn’t as unhealthy in months which can be hotter is as a result of folks prioritize air-conditioning, in order that they transfer extra shortly from line to line. Crowds are additionally worse within the (fewer) nighttime hours, particularly Prolonged Night Hours as a disproportionate variety of visitors search out these as a reprieve from the climate.
Throughout months when the climate is nicer, the other is true. You’ll see extra visitors wandering round, having fun with the environment of the parks. These months additionally draw out extra locals, who’re (statistically) much less inclined to race from trip to trip, exacerbating wait instances. There are different contributing elements, however the massive distinction boils right down to climate.
Zoom out and have a look at weekly wait time knowledge, and we see one thing considerably shocking: final week wasn’t simply the worst week of winter, it was tied for the second-worst week of the final 12 months!
The one week that was busier was the week of New Yr’s Eve, which was considerably worse. Final week was tied with Easter, beating final Christmas and Central Florida’s Spring Break. It was worse than Fall Break, Thanksgiving, and each single week of summer time.
That’s fairly noteworthy for a vacation that isn’t even on the radar of loads of vacationers. We name loads of consideration to Presidents’ Day, like Veterans Day, as a result of the “surprising” crowds at all times catch folks abruptly–and we inevitably hear about it from readers, regardless of our many warnings.
We predicted that final week would positively be one of many high 10 worst weeks, and might be one of many high 5 worst weeks, so this isn’t out of line with expectations. Nonetheless, I wouldn’t have put it at #2.
My expectation is that it’ll nonetheless fall to #3 or #4 as soon as we’re wanting on the entirety of 2026 versus the (rolling) final 12 months. At minimal, Easter must be worse this 12 months by advantage of occurring earlier. I’m additionally skeptical that Christmas 2026 will likely be as gradual (comparatively talking) as final 12 months. However Thanksgiving has been trending downward for some time, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the primary two weeks of Spring Break are slower.
Regardless, this could underscore simply how unhealthy final week was (and once more, with worse ‘seems like’ crowds than window throughout a hotter time of 12 months) and why it is best to keep away from these dates in 2027 or 2028. The excellent news is that the collision of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras doesn’t repeat itself till 2032. Simply in time for colossal crowds to descend upon Villains Land!
Additionally fascinating is that, as of proper now, February 2026 is the busiest month of the final 12. That’s maybe the greater story right here, as we knew the week of Mid-Winter Break can be unhealthy.
Nonetheless, we didn’t anticipate the 2 weeks earlier than it to be as busy as they had been; as a substitute of a weeklong reprieve from the crowds as is often the case, there have been just a few 2-3 day stretches of two/10 to 4/10 crowd ranges.
At the same time as winter has gotten worse, it’s nonetheless been the case that there have been pockets of low to average crowds within the combine. With every year, these appear to shrink and grow to be much less predictable. They’re nonetheless amongst our favourite weeks to go to because of climate and the EPCOT Pageant of the Arts, but it surely’s getting harder to suggest these 5/10 to 7/10 dates–with even worse ‘seems like’ crowds from an goal perspective. Past elevated journey flexibility and the next Central Florida inhabitants, different drivers of those added crowds are youth sporting occasions, conventions, and South American tour teams.
In the end, all of that is is why Mid-Winter Break ranks #4 on our checklist of the Least-Unhealthy Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World for Households on College Schedules. As we are actually lower than a 12 months away from our personal journey being constrained by college schedules, I’m turning into more and more cognizant of the sensible realities of once we’ll be capable of take journeys.
If we had just one Walt Disney World trip per 12 months and will select it in a vacuum, we wouldn’t choose Mid-Winter Break. (That’s why it ranks #4!) However there are additionally 6 weeks which can be worse than that, and that’s with out each single week of summer time included on the checklist. Nonetheless, we additionally couldn’t select it in a vacuum–and a few our high selections coincide with household holidays, so these are most likely out. Out of the blue, Mid-Winter Break, even with its 7/10 to 9/10 crowds, turns into much more engaging.
To every their very own, however I’d fortunately take greater ‘seems like’ crowds/congestion over greater ‘seems like’ temperatures. That’s exactly why extra weeks from November via March make our checklist of the most effective time to go to. In our view, means an excessive amount of emphasis is positioned on wait instances, as in the event that they’re the end-all, be-all of Walt Disney World journey timing. At the least for us, they aren’t the highest 2 or 3 issues. You may beat excessive crowds; you can’t escape oppressive warmth and humidity.
For those who’re in search of the most effective of each worlds, the excellent news is that there must be a reprieve from the crowds for the subsequent couple of weeks. The parks gained’t be something near ghost cities (see the entire above commentary about winter, as a complete, being busier than it was once), however these subsequent two weeks gained’t be as unhealthy as final week and even the median week of winter.
So far, this week has seen 4/10 to six/10 crowd ranges at Walt Disney World. It was once considered one of our high weeks of the 12 months, however that modified throughout the final couple of years as crowds began to creep up. With Mardi Gras transferring ahead, that opens up the primary week of March, which we usually like extra. Once more, it gained’t be useless, and there are nonetheless main pitfalls to keep away from with the beginning the 2026 EPCOT Flower & Backyard Pageant, together with ESPN Large World of Sports activities occasions, but it surely must be doable to hit 3/10 to 4/10 days by selecting the most effective days of the week to go to every park.
So far, Mardi Gras coinciding with Presidents’ Day has one apparent upside, which is that it’s not occurring a distinct week. By consolidating crowds which can be usually unfold out, the dates that observe in late February and early March 2026 must be higher than final 12 months. That gained’t final too lengthy, as Central Florida’s Spring Break is correct across the nook subsequent month, but it surely’s really an analogous story with Spring Break. Easter transferring ahead by 15 days in 2026 means shoulder season ought to arrive sooner!
Climate, then again, is a bit trickier. Central Florida has had a number of unseasonably chilly stretches this 12 months, to the purpose that it could be off-putting to vacationers who booked journeys to the so-called Sunshine State. On the plus facet, this could cut back the numbers of locals visiting by a non-negligible quantity, yielding an goal enchancment in crowd ranges.
From a topic perspective, most vacationers will most likely choose gentle climate. However as somebody who has intensive expertise with triple-digit warmth in Central Florida throughout summer time and fall, I’ll fortunately take “excessive” chilly (by Florida’s requirements) to excessive warmth. Identical to beating crowds vs. beating warmth, you possibly can at all times overcome chilly climate by including layers…there are solely so many you possibly can take away earlier than you’re escorted out of the park.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you go to Walt Disney World throughout this worst week of winter in 2026? What did you consider the crowds? Have you ever achieved Mid-Winter Break (or no matter you wish to name it) previously? For those who’ve visited beforehand when Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras coincided, did you discover colossal crowds? Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even if you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
