Walt Disney World has laid the muse to construct a fifth theme park. Nicely, the figurative basis–not the literal one. That’s nonetheless a minimum of a decade away–maybe 20 years or extra. This put up covers the 2045 Complete Plan that was permitted by the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District, and why we nonetheless are satisfied a fifth gate remains to be a legendary creature that’s unlikely to occur. Ever.
Followers have renewed hopes for a fifth gate final yr primarily based on this 2045 Complete Plan, which arises out of the settlement of a lawsuit over the previous Reedy Creek Enchancment District. Consequently, a joint growth settlement was to be reached between the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (CFTOD) and Walt Disney World. This meant that the 2032 Complete Plan was deemed null and void, and that the prior 2020 Complete Plan would stay in impact till a brand new plan had been permitted.
Additionally as a part of that settlement, the CFTOD agreed to seek the advice of with Walt Disney World whereas reviewing and amending the present plan and creating a brand new complete plan. In different phrases, the brand new 2045 Complete Plan is the results of a joint collaboration between Disney and CFTOD, not simply randomly arrived-at judgments of the latter.
It’s price noting that this identical settlement commited the corporate to speculate $17 billion in Walt Disney World over the subsequent 10 to twenty years. Underneath the phrases of the deal, Disney is required to speculate a minimum of $8 billion throughout the first 10 years of the settlement. So anybody who’s skeptical that Disney’s enlargement plans could be quietly cancelled…that’s unlikely.
In any case, the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District 2045 Complete Plan has lastly been permitted, revealing particular particulars concerning the district’s plans for land use. When you’d like, you’ll be able to learn the total ~400 web page doc for your self right here (it begins on web page 201). I don’t know why you’d wish to, although.
When it comes to primary background, the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District 2045 Complete Plan is meant to supply the idea for future selections concerning land use, growth, conservation and infrastructure. It serves because the District’s official coverage for the usage of each personal and public lands, in addition to the Complete Plan for the Cities of Bay Lake and Lake Buena Vista. The Plan gives a framework for enlargement of the distinctive makes use of within the District, whereas managing progress, defending the surroundings, guaranteeing well being and security, and enhancing the standard of growth.
The CFTOD’s 2045 Complete Plan continues the excessive normal of planning already undertaken and extends its purview ten years into the long run. The Plan’s three general features are: 1) to manipulate the placement and depth of land use and growth by offering the muse for regulating proposed new tasks; 2) to convey advance route to the personal sector by stating clearly the District’s expectations for progress and conservation; and three) to information public funding in new services, similar to roads, water techniques, and water high quality services.
The district (first Reedy Creek and now CFTOD) has been doing fashionable variations of those plans since 1991. It started the method through the development of the Disney-MGM Studios, realizing extra cohesive grasp plans for complete land use planning had been wanted. The 2045 Complete Plan builds on the interim 2020 Plan, and displays adjustments to the prior 2010 Complete Plan. Suffice to say, it’s probably the most consequential everlasting plan shortly.
Clearly, there’s a whole lot of floor coated in ~400 pages, and far of it issues what Walt Disney World can construct. This contains main expansions in workplace area–by over 1 million sq. ft, 1.7 million sq. ft of restaurant/retail area, and 53,076 resort rooms (the adjustments to room key will increase is probably probably the most fascinating facet of the replace, in that these limits would possibly truly current a significant ceiling on progress).
Within the 2045 Complete Plan, the CFTOD has additionally permitted a fifth main theme park at Walt Disney World. This is a rise within the allowed most from a 2010 plan, formalizing what was penciled into the 2020 plan. This fifth gate is permitted starting in 2035, and operating by the conclusion of the plan in 2045.
The 2045 Complete Plan views a significant theme park as being on the size of Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom, with an estimated dimension of roughly 445 acres. There are at the moment 4 main theme parks at Walt Disney World (those listed above).
The technical definition of a significant theme park per the plan is: “A theme park that’s designed for multiple-day visits. The exhibitions and rides are intensive and usually require greater than at some point to expertise.” (Undecided how Animal Kingdom meets this!) A brand new main theme park would have a every day inhabitants of fifty,000 folks (friends plus workers and others), which might put it above DHS or DAK.
Along with a single main theme park allotted within the complete plan, the plan permits for 2 extra minor theme parks. A minor theme park could be smaller or extra area of interest expertise, with a projected land space of round 147 acres. There are at the moment 3 minor theme parks at Walt Disney World: Storm Lagoon, Blizzard Seashore, and ESPN Large World of Sports activities.
The window for the primary minor park opens in 2030, with a second minor park being on the desk beginning in 2040. Each choices lengthen by the length of the plan. Minor theme park is outlined as: “A theme park that’s designed for single-day or partial-day visits. Guests are anticipated to spend shorter quantities of time than they might at a significant theme park.” Curiously, a brand new minor theme park would have a inhabitants of 1,780 folks, which is about half the inhabitants of the water parks (when open).
Maybe what’s extra attention-grabbing about these new main and minor parks is the redlines from a previous draft of the plan. Earlier variations of the minor and main park had been each smaller. Furthermore, this expands what might be construed as a minor or main park to “enlargement,” that means a large enlargement plan might seemingly qualify as a brand new gate below the phrases of the plan. Maybe that’s how Walt Disney World will market Villains Land: “it’s mainly a fifth gate inside our 1st gate, for those who don’t give it some thought too laborious.”
These new minor and main theme parks are usually not official tasks–this shouldn’t be construed as a “leak” or “sneak peek” of what’s to come back. On the contrary, the 2045 Complete Plan particularly states that no plans for future theme parks are below evaluate.
Basically, what the 2045 Complete Plan is undertaking is laying the groundwork for brand spanking new minor or main theme parks in its land use plan. Though Disney is probably not contemplating such plans immediately, if the enterprise surroundings adjustments sooner or later such that new parks are deemed vital, they are often constructed with out spending one other half-decade on rewriting the rulebook (e.g. this plan).
A method or one other, although, the CFTOD does anticipate Walt Disney World’s daytime customer rely to extend dramatically. Based mostly on present attendance and occupancy numbers, the district estimates that the “useful” daytime inhabitants of Walt Disney World is between 205,000 and 307,000, whereas that quantity is predicted to balloon to 335,000 to 475,000 by 2045–and the majority of that progress will happen within the closing 10 years of the plan (the 2035 vary is 243,000 to 366,000). So somebody believes that one thing massive is on the horizon!
Once more, we can not underscore sufficient that Walt Disney World at the moment has no plans to assemble a fifth main theme park or any minor theme parks, for that matter. None. Nada. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Remember that that is the operation that wasn’t even opening the 2 present water parks in its portfolio for five years! And the plan was to maintain the seasonal rotation in 2025 till overwhelming demand throughout spring break pressured Disney’s hand.
Followers are nonetheless excited, as a result of certainly this language was included purposefully as a result of Walt Disney World is laying the groundwork to construct a fifth gate within the subsequent decade, proper? We extremely doubt it.
The settlement merely offers Disney the autonomy to construct a fifth park–holding its choices open–with out having to revisit the event settlement. Significantly, don’t learn an excessive amount of into this. It’s like how the land on your own home could be zoned or conditionally permitted for an ADU, even if in case you have no plans of constructing one.
So why do that if there’s no urge for food to construct a fifth theme park? In all probability as a result of Disney has discovered its lesson from its dealings with the federal government in each Florida, with the dismantling of the previous Reedy Creek Enchancment District, and in California with the Metropolis of Anaheim.
Really, that is considerably much like the “pitch” for DisneylandForward, which showcased a ton of potentialities on giant swaths of land past the present theme park boundaries. Disney touted Fantasy Springs from Tokyo DisneySea and different envelope-pushing points of interest they may construct subsequent to Pixar Place Lodge and on the Toy Story Parking zone.
As a substitute, we’re getting expansions and redevelopment which are largely throughout the present footprint of the mixed parks. The entire aim with DisneylandForward was to open the door in order that Disney might do what they wished with out interference from Anaheim. The pitch was massive and daring. The fact appears to be like good, however doesn’t fairly match that!
There are over a half-dozen compelling the reason why the corporate received’t construct a fifth theme park at Walt Disney World. We’ve coated these in excruciating element in Why a fifth Theme Park Will NOT Be Constructed at Disney World within the Subsequent Decade. I assume we are able to now lengthen that to the subsequent two many years, as this plan runs by 2045.
The one purpose the title doesn’t finish with “In My Lifetime” is as a result of I plan on dwelling an obscenely very long time–we’re speaking mid triple digits–and it’s inconceivable to foresee what might occur as soon as we hit Walt Disney World’s one hundredth Anniversary.
Not a lot has modified on that entrance, so quite than rehashing all of that, I’ll share some fast bullet factors earlier than including new ideas:
- Effectivity & Ease: Disney’s present focus is basically growing utilization of the present parks by redevelopment, not true enlargement.
- Iger and D’Amaro Statements: The present and future CEO by no means tease a fifth gate, and at all times particularly say they wish to broaden the present home parks.
- Too Costly: Common spent $7 Billion on Epic Universe with a lot of that pre-inflation. A fifth gate in 2035 on par with that might simply exceed $10 billion (adjusted for actual and Imagineering inflation). Maybe nearer to $15 billion.
- Cannibalization: A long time after opening, Animal Kingdom nonetheless struggles to tug its personal weight. A fifth park is prone to pull attendance away from present gates.
- Common American Trip: The common American’s trip is between 4 and 6 days lengthy, and that common has been on the decline for the final couple of many years; Central Florida doesn’t get sufficient worldwide guests to choose up the slack.
- Labor Pool: Staffing shortages are largely resolved within the parks, however it’s nonetheless not excellent. Central Florida has a decent labor market, with almost two job openings for each unemployed particular person. As new development retains taking place all through the area and America’s inhabitants ages–with out various labor sources–that is unlikely to vary (barring large productiveness features through automation).
- Infrastructure Prices: Less expensive to broaden (truly broaden) the present parks, which all have room to develop per the Complete 2045 Plan. Theme parks require new toll plazas, ticket cubicles, turnstiles, backstage services, roads, transportation hubs, and different infrastructure that already exists in help of the present theme parks. Infrastructure bills are usually not insignificant, and it’s troublesome to justify their expenditures when the present parks may be built-out with out incurring all of those identical prices. Added infrastructure additionally compounds labor prices (see above).
Turning to new commentary, I’d additionally add that the jury remains to be out on the knowledge of Comcast constructing Epic Universe. Positive, followers love that Common Orlando swung for the fences and wager massive with Epic Universe. It’s an excellent park with nice rides and daring concepts. It has its faults, certain, however none of that is actually the purpose. By and enormous, it’s a crucial success.
Fairly, it’s a query of whether or not spending $7 billion to construct Epic Universe–plus in all probability one other $2 billion to rapidly broaden its capability within the subsequent a number of years–was a sensible enterprise resolution? Will the park be a industrial success? I’m certain Common did all kinds of viability research and has inside projections pre-2019 exhibiting Epic Universe will generate boatloads of money, elevated occupancy and attendance, and so forth. However the factor about all of that’s it’s theoretical and topic to vary.
If truth be told, the jury remains to be out on whether or not Epic Universe was the appropriate play or whether or not Common would’ve been higher off constructing out Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida. It’s straightforward to level to the triple-digit wait occasions and declare Epic Universe is a large hit, however as coated in Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance, that is largely a byproduct of capability constraints.
Not solely that, however simply because a 3rd gate (arguably) was the appropriate transfer for Common doesn’t imply the identical could be true with a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. The previous is attempting to remodel itself right into a bona fide trip vacation spot that captures coveted resort stays. The latter is the mature complicated that already accomplishes that!
For the Walt Disney Firm, there’s additionally the chance price of constructing one other theme park in Central Florida. In the event that they’re going to construct one other gate, is that actually the optimum location, or ought to that cash be invested elsewhere?
One of many causes some followers are holding out hope {that a} fifth gate is for actual is as a result of Disney shocked the world with the Disneyland Abu Dhabi announcement. The distinction there’s large, although–Disney is spending $0 to construct that new park within the United Arab Emirates. That park is a cash-positive licensing deal that helps fund investments on the different parks!
So long as we’re speaking a couple of new theme park within the Center East, we should always contemplate different rising progress alternatives the place Disney might spend its personal cash to construct new parks. Places that come to thoughts embrace India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil and perhaps even Beijing. I might wager on new Disneylands in any of these locations earlier than a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. I might additionally wager on random locations with some huge cash that give Disney sweetheart offers for reputational causes, a la Abu Dhabi Disneyland.
Frankly, I’d additionally wager on a second gate at Shanghai Disneyland or third gate at Disneyland Paris taking place earlier than a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. Heck, for that matter, a third gate at Disneyland Resort is considerably extra seemingly, and I’d put the percentages of even that taking place at below 50/50 in my lifetime!
The purpose is that new parks in new markets make infinitely extra sense than the corporate placing too many eggs within the Central Florida basket. Past that, the calculus additionally favors extra gates in present markets to show these into bona fide vacation spot resorts–much like the reasoning for Common constructing Epic Universe.
In truth, if Disney goes to be “impressed” by something that Common is doing, it’s extra prone to be the regional youngsters park in Texas or the year-round Halloween Horror Nights factor in Las Vegas. Though Disney was burned by the regional ideas earlier than and I’m skeptical they’ll construct something cost-effectively sufficient for viability, that’s nonetheless extra seemingly than a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. Who is aware of–perhaps if the Texas or Las Vegas ideas are smash successes (uncertain), Disney will take a tough take a look at replicating these outcomes. Regardless, the look shall be tougher than the one at constructing a fifth theme park!
I’m not attempting to be a celebration pooper or the bearer of dangerous information with all of this, however frankly, it’s NOT dangerous information that Walt Disney World received’t get a fifth gate! Walt Disney World shouldn’t be occupied with one other brand-new theme park anytime quickly. There’s loads of room to enhance, broaden, repair, and so on. the present gates.
Followers love the concept of a fifth theme park as a result of it’s a clean slate, able to holding a protracted want listing of rides and lands. As a substitute of getting 1-2 rides right here or there, we get a half-dozen new lands. A model new theme park is attractive and thrilling due to the countless theoretical alternatives it presents. It’s enjoyable to daydream about Florida DisneySea or no matter could be in your excellent park.
There are few emotions like stepping foot in a brand-new park for the primary time–expansions completely don’t maintain a candle to that. I used to be reminded of this once more with my first go to to Epic Universe. However I’m additionally a realist. It’s enjoyable to dream, however the sensible actuality of a brand new theme park wouldn’t be excellent (simply as Epic Universe presently isn’t excellent). At greatest, it might open incomplete.
If this fictional fifth gate at Walt Disney World had been on par with Walt Disney Studios Park (Paris), Disney’s California Journey, or Hong Kong Disneyland when any of these opened, the expertise could be totally underwhelming. Constructing Shanghai Disneyland…because it exists immediately…in Florida, USA…within the 2040s would price a minimum of $15 billion as soon as all is alleged and achieved. Possibly extra. Need Tokyo DisneySea? There’s no level in even speaking about that. Not even OLC would construct one other Tokyo DisneySea in immediately’s world. There’s completely no purpose to imagine Disney would.
As thrilling as a fifth gate could be, it’s troublesome to advocate for that when Animal Kingdom remains to be a half-day park and in want of near a half-dozen extra rides. When Disney’s Hollywood Studios wants extra all-ages points of interest in order that its headliners don’t common 60+ minute waits and a large-scale alternative for the lifeless mall that’s Animation Courtyard. When EPCOT, even post-overhaul, wants one other new World Showcase pavilion, 3-4 rides, and reimaginings to some rides on the entrance of the park.
Outdoors of the Dinoland plot, there’s a ton of unused or underutilized area in Animal Kingdom. That park already has nice bones–now how about a few all-new (not alternative) lands–that turns it right into a full day-plus park? There’s countless potential at EPCOT.
Backstage services might be relocated at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, permitting for the smallest park to turn out to be bigger format. Imagineering is lots able to dreaming up tens of billions of {dollars} of implausible concepts for the present 4 parks at Walt Disney World past all the things that’s already been introduced.
And people are simply the issues that actually ought to be achieved on the present parks. That listing didn’t embrace enlargement at Magic Kingdom, which “wants” the least assist. There are a ton of discretionary tasks that would occur on the present gates to actually enhance them, and Villains Land is a type of.
Oh, and as soon as Villains Land is finished, its laydown yards will flip a whole lot of the land to the northwest of Magic Kingdom from “marginally unsuitable” to “marginally appropriate” (see above). That land that would turn out to be future park enlargement to construct out Magic Kingdom even additional. Or, extra seemingly, an in-park resort–that would account for a pair thousand of the “keys” permitted within the 2045 Plan.
While you add the aforementioned infrastructure to the combination, the prices of setting up a brand new theme park would eat away a number of billions of {dollars} that might be spent on substantive additions as an alternative. Lots of followers are upset about Walt Disney World’s method to increasing throughout the berm within the subsequent ~5 years, however it’s an extremely environment friendly use of sources that ought to provide significantly extra bang for buck.
Whereas among the selections being made as half of the present plans strike me as short-sighted, I’ll nonetheless take a maximization of the funding, and have that cash allotted in direction of increasing the present parks and reimagining rides which are at the moment underutilized or outdated.
I do know that’s not the thrilling alternative and could be an unpopular opinion. However the various is the present 4 gates stagnating for many years to come back–and that’s assuming a brand new gate could be correctly built-out within the first place, and wouldn’t require one other decade to repair or broaden. I solely plan on dwelling till I’m ~150 years previous, and I’m unsure if that’s sufficient time for Animal Kingdom to be correctly built-out right into a full-day park if Disney chases this fifth gate folly.
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Your Ideas
Do you assume a fifth main theme park plus fourth & fifth minor parks are on the horizon at Walt Disney World earlier than 2045? Would you wish to see the corporate spend $10 to fifteen billion to construct a brand-new theme park, or would you favor it spent on increasing the present 4 parks (and holding the lights on at each water parks)? Do you agree or disagree with our causes as to why one is unlikely–or fascinating–within the foreseeable future? Another ideas or commentary so as to add? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
