This 12 months’s waterfowl inhabitants survey outcomes can be disappointing to veteran duck hunters, however they shouldn’t be stunning. The entire variety of geese dipped slightly below 34 million breeding geese, based on the annual duck counts printed Tuesday by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. This complete estimate is basically is unchanged from final 12 months, which represented the first duck inhabitants improve since 2015. However because of persistent dry situations within the Prairie Pothole area that led to poor copy charges this spring, there’ll seemingly be fewer younger geese on the panorama this 12 months.
“This 12 months is mainly a mirrored image of what occurred final breeding season,” Steve Adair, chief scientist for Geese Limitless, tells Outside Life. “It’s birds which are coming again [north] from final 12 months. The influence of the actually dry situations goes to be on the autumn flight this winter after which the breeding inhabitants for 2026.”
When scientists conduct the USFWS Waterfowl Breeding Inhabitants and Habitat Survey, as they’ve performed yearly since 1955 (apart from the Covid-19 pandemic), they’re not simply counting geese — they’re additionally recording the variety of ponds that these geese use to breed. And this 12 months, drought situations have led to a 34 % decline in pond numbers within the U.S. from 2024, which is the bottom U.S. pond estimate in seven years.
“Based mostly on the pond numbers, we count on decrease copy and fewer younger birds within the fall flight this 12 months,” Adair says.
Even with that less-than-ideal information, there are many silver linings. For instance pintail numbers bumped up noticeably. Notably, hunters get will get a three-pintail bag restrict this season, despite the fact that pintails are down 41 % from their long-term common. To grasp why, try the USFWS interim pintail administration technique.
Mallard numbers solely dipped one % in comparison with 2024, hovering simply above 6.5 million. However nonetheless, mallard long-term averages are down 17 %. These figures are one of many lowest mallard counts because the early 90s.
After the banner 12 months for green- and blue-winged teal in 2024, this 12 months the species are down 15 % and 4 %, respectively. Whereas long-term averages are down 13 % for blue-winged teal, green-winged teal are displaying some resiliency and stay 16 % above the long run common. The most important long-term will increase come from redheads, that are up 25 %, with a 17 % bump in comparison with 2024.
Canvasbacks have proven essentially the most spectacular improve in breeding this 12 months, with counts up by 22 %. Wigeon and gadwalls confirmed modest beneficial properties, too, and each species are up over the long run, at 22 % and 17 %, respectively. (Spoonies are up barely, too.)
The dry prairies did get some rain final spring, although it arrived too late for early nesters like pintails and mallards. That might have a big effect on these two populations this winter and subsequent spring. The late deluges didn’t appear to supply a lot reduction for the parched soil of the prairies of North America — when wanting on the decline in pond numbers in each the U.S. and Canada, there’s a 20 % decline in wetlands in the long run.
One other key takeaway, based on a DU press launch, is that the USFWS is anticipated to advocate liberal frameworks for the 2026–2027 duck season throughout all 4 flyways. In different phrases, we’re in all probability not going to see massive modifications to duck searching rules throughout the nation. For a superb breakdown on how the survey works, why it issues, and the way it impacts hunters, try this DU podcast under.
Learn Subsequent: The place Are All of the Geese?
Despite the fact that droughts can wreak havoc, there may be upside. When seed banks are uncovered by dry intervals, says Adair, it promotes the recycling of vitamins and vegetation progress. That in the end results in higher nesting habitat. So, whereas poor habitat situations will influence hunters this season and subsequent, there’s probability that the prairies might bounce again with improved breeding grounds—— in the event that they keep moist.
