Excellent news! The Crowds Capybara (aka “Bay Lake Beatrice”) noticed her shadow, predicting six or so weeks of low wait instances at Walt Disney World. With Spring Break within the rearview mirror and summer season remains to be one other month-plus away, this can be a good forecast by the rodent–as we’re getting into “Shoulder Season.”
This crowd report shares wait instances knowledge, which dates ended up being the worst of the season, and our on-the-ground observations about congestion and features. Plus, predictions on attendance ranges subsequent month and all through Summer time 2025, in addition to how the opening week and months of Epic Universe at Common Orlando might affect Walt Disney World.
We’ll begin by looking again on the final month-plus of Spring Break season at Walt Disney World. Particularly, we’ll have a look at what our Spring Break 2025 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World acquired proper and unsuitable with its predictions, and simply how unhealthy Easter ended up being.
The excellent news is that the broad contours of the forecast ended up being correct. Our prediction was twin peaks of heavy crowds the week of Orange County’s recess and one other virtually a month later main as much as Easter, with considerably of a valley in early April. We had been overly aggressive predicting the beginning of Spring Break, however crowds had been heavy beginning March 17-29 and once more April 12-19. In each instances, peak crowds began a pair days after our forecast window and ended 1-2 earlier.
Equally notable had been the decrease factors. March 30 by way of April 11 noticed low to reasonable crowds, fairly much like what we’d anticipate throughout the upcoming Shoulder Season. That’s what a late Easter causes–a later second spike in Spring Break crowds, and likewise quasi-Shoulder Season in between.
Save for some Spring Break stragglers, ‘Shoulder Season’ has roughly already arrived at this level. We don’t anticipate one other excessive crowds week till October 2025, and even above-average weeks are going to be few and much between for the subsequent a number of months.
As all the time, what’s lined in these “crowd” reviews is definitely posted wait time knowledge that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating varied days, weeks, months, and years. Lots may be gleaned from posted wait instances, but it surely’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
If you wish to perceive extra about these reviews and crowd calendars, their strengths and limitations, or addressing misconceptions about crowds, see our checklist of the “Prime” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Fallacious About Crowds. That’s value studying in order for you a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, appears like crowds vs. wait instances, and some pretty straightforward methods to “beat” the crowds.
In brief, wait instances are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds. Earlier than going deeper into the dialogue of crowds, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney World wait instances. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire.
For the reason that lows of final September and October, Walt Disney World has gotten progressively. Which may appear to be excellent news for the parks themselves, till you distinction the numbers with the identical months on a year-over-year foundation. December 2023 by way of March 2024 had been extremely robust, main us to query whether or not we had been seeing a reverberation of revenge journey at Walt Disney World.
That didn’t final. Crowds fell every month beginning in April, bottoming out throughout the fall low season (October was one thing of an anomaly as a result of hurricanes). Crowds have risen since, however to nowhere close to the identical diploma because the earlier vacation season and winter. Spring Break is a really related story–wait instances are down noticeably on a year-over-year foundation for the final two months.
Final yr, the typical for March was a 40 minute wait time or 7/10 crowd stage. March 2025 noticed a 36 minute common for five/10 crowds. April was really equivalent each years: 34 minute waits for 4/10 crowd ranges. These comparisons aren’t apples to apples since Easter was in March final yr, which means we’d anticipate April 2025 to be busier. Additionally, the month is just not over but, and the slowest days are nonetheless forward. Which means that even with Easter, April 2025 might find yourself being slower than final yr.
Talking of which, above is a have a look at the weekly crowd ranges. The 6 bars on the far proper are what we’ll be taking a look at. The final bar is the present week (by way of April 27, 2025) and reveals the Shoulder Season slowdown already in progress. Previous to that’s Easter, which is all the time the height week of Spring Break.
The earlier two weeks are the aforementioned ‘valley’ in early April 2025 after Southern faculty districts went on recess however previous to Easter week crowds heating up. As you’ll see within the each day numbers, these yellow bars considerably overstate crowd ranges throughout these weeks.
The 2 bars earlier than that had been when Orange County and different faculty districts in Florida (to not point out the remainder of the US) went on break. Notice that none of those weeks had been 10/10 crowd ranges. The primary two weeks, in mid-to-late March, had been 6/10 ranges. Easter was “solely” 8/10, which can appear heavy–however that was the slowest Easter week we’ve seen since 2021.
Zooming in additional, we come to the resort-wide each day numbers for Walt Disney World.
The week main as much as Easter was unsurprisingly busy, with a little bit of a lull (comparatively) for the vacation weekend itself. No enormous shock there, as crowds heading dwelling earlier than the weekend has more and more turn out to be the development. That is pushed by plenty of components, however principally larger costs.
We additionally need to draw your consideration to the few inexperienced bars between the height weeks of Spring Break. These are 1/10 to three/10 crowd ranges the final two days of March and first week of April 2025. That was a good time to go to (I communicate from expertise!) and is value remembering for the subsequent time Easter is so late. So file that information away till 2028, I assume.
For these questioning how Walt Disney World’s wait instances evaluate to Common Orlando, the development is about the identical, simply from a decrease baseline. As Comcast has reported on numerous earnings calls during the last yr, they’ve seen a pointy slowdown within the publish pent-up demand period–worse than Walt Disney World.
To that time, Comcast simply reported its earnings for the primary three months of the yr on April 24, 2025, and attendance dropped at Common’s theme parks in the US. Comcast reported that theme parks income was down 5.2% year-over-year, to $1.876 billion. The corporate attributed the decline partially as a result of January’s wildfires, which pressured the non permanent closure of Common Studios Hollywood. Adjusted EBITDA within the theme parks section additionally was down for the quarter by 32.1% year-over-year.
Whereas the wildfires unquestionably performed a task, there’s additionally this attention-grabbing development of each Comcast and Disney attributing decreases to externalities. The trend-line can also be down at Common Orlando, so this isn’t simply a matter of the wildfires. In Common’s protection, there may be virtually actually a ‘calm earlier than the storm’ with folks suspending visits previous to the opening of Epic Universe.
However we’re additionally anticipating the primary few months of Epic Universe to underperform expectations, with softer bookings than initially anticipated. We’ll have a extra in-depth have a look at this quickly, however simply to be clear, it’s not trigger for long-term concern or an indication of disinterest in Epic Universe. Such a phenomenon is just not unusual with main new openings, and Common ought to virtually actually see a lift within the coming quarter due to Epic Universe. That’s sort of a given, although, when including a brand new theme park to the combination.
It’s additionally value declaring that the one largest rationalization for the year-over-year drop in wait instances at Walt Disney World is the main adjustments to its queueing insurance policies in late Might 2024. Wait instances haven’t been as excessive since, even on comparably congested days. And as a reminder, all the above measures are of posted standby wait instances, which act as a proxy for crowds–they completely don’t congestion.
We defined why Walt Disney World is seeing decrease wait instances throughout the board in Right here’s Why Standby Traces and Lightning Lanes Are Transferring Quicker at Walt Disney World and have mentioned it elsewhere. That’s actually value studying if you wish to perceive the rising disconnect between ‘appears like’ crowds and wait instances.
The underside line is that the DAS adjustments and, to a lesser extent, change from Genie+ to Lightning Lane Multi-Go are having a major affect. It ought to go with out saying that there are controversies, downsides, and unlucky realities to the above. However the enchancment to the stream of traces–standby and Lightning Lanes–in addition to decrease wait instances can also be plain.
Turning to on-the-ground observations, I’ve spent plenty of time at Walt Disney World because the begin of Spring Break season. This included Orange County’s Spring Break, the height week of Easter, and the bottom stage week in between at first of April.
As a common matter, I used to be pleasantly shocked by crowds. My most unfavorable expertise got here with attempting to make use of the Skyliner from Artwork of Animation to do Early Entry at EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios. As normal, mornings had been fairly tough at DHS throughout busier dates (something 5/10 or above). Not precisely a brand new improvement, although. Unsurprisingly, I additionally encountered excessive demand for Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind throughout complete subject testing. (Outcomes of which might be nonetheless coming quickly!)
My most constructive experiences all got here at Magic Kingdom. (Properly, Animal Kingdom was additionally tremendous, however that’s to be anticipated.) There have been a number of days and nights at Magic Kingdom that had been a lot better than anticipated, and the expertise actually benefited from the 11 p.m. park hours extensions (though these had been rarer than final yr). Basically, I virtually all the time perceived decrease crowds at Magic Kingdom than the precise crowd ranges mirrored. That’s a pleasant feeling, and one that usually isn’t the case at Magic Kingdom. (Granted, I prevented Fortunately Ever After, so I by no means skilled that exodus.)
Most apparently, my notion of Easter crowds was a lot better than anticipated. Actually, I by no means would’ve guessed that week had 8/10 crowd ranges whereas visiting the parks. I used to be absolutely ready to do a write-up about an unexpectedly gradual Easter week primarily based on my on-the-ground expertise, and was shocked that the degrees had been really 8/10. A part of that was getting fortunate (or relatively, selecting accurately) my park visits every day, however crowds felt pretty reasonable.
If something, I’d’ve guessed that mid-March was worse than Easter week primarily based alone observations. Each had been unquestionably busier than final yr’s late summer season/early fall low season, however they didn’t really feel as unhealthy because the worst weeks of winter. It in all probability helped that the climate felt extremely snug by spring requirements, and that may make up for lots. I’ll fortunately take a 6/10 day with nice temperatures than a 1/10 day with triple-digit “appears like” warmth and humidity.
Level being, wait instances typically don’t inform the total story of crowds at Walt Disney World. And conversely, anecdotal experiences of crowds and congestion are variable, which is why they’re unreliable. Others who visited throughout Easter week may ‘pontificate’ within the feedback with horror tales about simply how busy it was. That doesn’t make both of us unsuitable–we simply had completely different experiences. Walt Disney World is a giant place; it occurs.
Trying ahead, Walt Disney World is now out of the woods with the worst of Spring Break. We’ll have one other replace to our 2025 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars very quickly, however the backside line is that there are only a few ‘crimson flag’ dates within the coming months.
At this level, it’s principally simply what’s at present on the ESPN Huge World of Sports activities calendar. The following couple of weekends, there are Cheerleading Championships, Cheerleading Worlds and Dance Worlds, and the Summit occasions for a similar. All of these occasions happen the subsequent couple of weeks and will trigger a slight bounce-back when it comes to crowds.
These are main dance and cheerleading competitions that increase attendance on the parks and occupancy on the motels, normally the All Stars and Coronado Springs. Nevertheless, the affect on crowd ranges within the parks isn’t vital as an entire–and tends to be overblown primarily based on anecdotal experiences, which may be fairly unhealthy. (Which means that you possibly can assume they’re a enormous unfavorable if you happen to’re caught in line for Haunted Mansion behind a gaggle of 100 cheerleaders…otherwise you may by no means see a single participant throughout a weeklong journey.)
Except for these cheer and dance occasions, that are value bringing to your consideration however not you fretting over, the excellent news is that it’s Shoulder Season. That is the interval between two heavier seasons. I assume that’s as a result of the shoulders are under the “peak” of the physique, or the pinnacle. During which case, maybe we must always begin referring to September as butt-season? It has a sure understated stupidity to it.
Anyway, Walt Disney World’s attendance patterns are largely dictated by faculty breaks. On account of this, far fewer company in Disney’s core demo go to shortly after or earlier than a significant break. One main break simply occurred, and one other doesn’t begin for an additional month-plus.
Final yr’s Shoulder Season ran from roughly April 15 till the Friday earlier than Memorial Day. Each single week in Might of final yr noticed under common crowds (together with these coinciding with cheer and dance occasions), with the three weeks main as much as Memorial Day being the slowest and having 2/10 to three/10 crowd ranges. Crowds rebounded the final week however had been nonetheless barely under common.
It’s unimaginable to say with any diploma of confidence whether or not the 2025 Shoulder Season can be slower than final yr. I’m inclined to foretell that it’ll. Final yr, Walt Disney World acquired aggressive in releasing offers to forestall a collapse in crowds (as occurred in Might 2023). For every of the final two years, reductions have been launched alongside an analogous timeframe, and with comparable high quality/amount for this time of yr.
On condition that, and the truth that crowd ranges have been down just about throughout the board as soon as adjusted for Easter, it appears secure to foretell a slower Shoulder Season than final yr. There’s additionally the fact that completely nothing that counts as a significant draw to Walt Disney World is debuting between now and Memorial Day.
Accordingly, we’d in all probability anticipate to see extra 1/10 to three/10 days than final yr, and fewer 4/10 and 5/10 days. It in all probability received’t be a dramatic distinction, but it surely may be sufficient that we are able to name Might 2025 the low season versus Shoulder Season.
Trying ahead, the opening of Epic Universe is Might 22, 2025. Sometimes, the Thursday earlier than Memorial Day is commonly when crowds begin to choose up, which is why Common Orlando selected to open Epic Universe on that day. So far as how the opening of Epic Universe will affect crowds at Walt Disney World, it’s troublesome to say–there’s not precisely a ton of precedent for a way new competing theme parks alter attendance at Walt Disney World.
One factor to notice is that paid previews of Epic Universe have been underway for a couple of week, and have up to now had zero affect on Walt Disney World attendance. Granted, they had been introduced final minute and the eligibility pool is proscribed (for now), however up to now, these haven’t even been a blip on the radar for EPCOT and Animal Kingdom (the 2 parks more than likely to be impacted).
Our greatest guess is that opening weekend of Epic Universe can be slower than a standard Memorial Day weekend at Walt Disney World, as Common sucks up all of the oxygen within the room. Many locals have bought tickets and booked lodge stays for Epic Universe that weekend, and vacationers are unsurprisingly doing likewise. This dynamic will exist all through the summer season, but it surely’ll be most pronounced by way of Monday, Might 26, 2025.
Opposite to traditional knowledge, we don’t anticipate a lot of a noticeable affect on Walt Disney World attendance or wait instances all through Summer time 2025 as a result of Epic Universe, save for at EPCOT and Animal Kingdom. We do anticipate decrease crowds than final yr–and it’s not like Summer time 2024 was busy within the first place–however that principally has to do with financial uncertainty and plummeting worldwide journey.
The worst affect of that can coincide with the opening of Epic Universe, however correlation doesn’t equal causation. (It received’t cease many followers desirous to see Disney “fail” from drawing the conclusion.) It additionally doesn’t assist that Walt Disney World doesn’t have any blockbuster new additions opening in Summer time 2025. The one huge factor is Starlight Night time Parade, and there’s no opening date for that but, which means it’s trying more and more like a July debut. That’ll increase nighttime crowds in Magic Kingdom, however is unlikely to maneuver the needle on posted wait instances at points of interest or non-local attendance.
We will see, although. Maybe Bay Lake Beatrice is unsuitable and crowds will choose up in mid-Might and keep elevated all summer season lengthy. Or possibly it’s not simply six slower weeks, however extra like 6 slower months. Crowd Capybaras are about as dependable as crowd calendars lately, so it might go both means. It’ll be an attention-grabbing saga to look at unfold, and our greatest guess primarily based on the elevated sense of urgency with reductions is that that is going to be a chronic interval of low to reasonable attendance.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World throughout Shoulder Season between Spring Break and Summer time 2025? Have you ever visited up to now throughout the month of Might? Had been you within the parks over the previous couple weeks? In the event you visited throughout Easter week, what was your notion of crowds? Pleasantly shocked or did you discover it to be extremely busy? Ideas on the affect of Epic Universe? Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
