Why Does Ammo Maintain Getting Extra Costly?

The sky-high value of ammunition through the Covid pandemic shortages have mercifully declined. Whereas ammunition in all probability feels much more costly than it used to, many costs actually have dropped from the all-time, eye-popping peak through the ammo scarcity in 2021 and 2022. 

That’s the excellent news. The dangerous information, as most hunters and shooters have already observed, is that ammo stays pricier than we’re used to paying. That’s for just a few causes. First, the value of uncooked supplies to make ammunition have typically elevated. We’re additionally a number of years into a world propellant scarcity. Whereas tariffs haven’t but contributed to excessive costs for many American-made ammo, they’ve brought on value spikes in some segments of the market.

Regardless of these challenges, business insiders say, ammo is extensively obtainable and costs have been decrease for reasonable, bulk ammunition. There’s no scarcity anticipated anytime quickly. And — as powerful as it’s to abdomen — the value is probably going going to extend within the close to future. Right here’s why.

Ammo Costs Have Come Down Because the Pandemic Value Spikes

There have been loads of elements that created an ideal storm of ammo shortage — like minimal provide and panic shopping for — and correspondingly astronomical prices.

“You’ve gotten quick time period value spikes that come from a big enhance in shopping for intent and shopping for demand coming from concern, uncertainty, and doubt,” says AmmunitionDepot.com CEO Dan Wolgin, in reference to the pandemic-era ammunition shortages. “After that, finally issues sort of normalize and that value coasts again right down to the long-term development line. Or often under it, after which has to return again up. Proper now, we’re in that below-the-long-term-trend-line pricing.”

One clear instance is in pricing information from one in all Ammunition Depot’s hottest merchandise: 9mm FMJ brass. As you possibly can see within the line graf under, the value of that spherical spiked in March 2021 — precisely yr after the pandemic set in — at .81 cents per spherical. The value has progressively declined to about .23 cents per spherical as of this month.

Whereas this is only one instance of 1 load (albeit a well-liked cartridge) this development of lower-than-pandemic ammo costs is usually true for lots of widespread masses. 

Nosler, as an example, lowered a lot of its costs initially of 2025, in order that ammo value the identical or barely lower than in 2022. Observe, too, that the costs listed under are MSRPs, or “producer’s instructed retail costs,” and the retail value of that ammo is often decrease on-line or in a store.

Nosler offered OL with pricing information for 3 widespread and generally stocked masses. Many figures are rounded estimates based mostly on value margins, since Nosler didn’t implement MSRPs till not too long ago.

“You’ll observe that each the 6.5 Creed and 9mm had a cheaper price in 2020 than 2015 — these are correct,” says Pat Mundy, Nosler’s vice chairman of gross sales, advertising, and innovation. “We had a value discount simply earlier than Covid [and resultant inflation and shortages] hit.”

In the meantime, different corporations have elevated costs. That’s for just a few causes, says Hornady communications supervisor Seth Swerczek — together with as a result of producers like Hornady don’t regulate their costs as usually as another corporations. 

“At Hornady we’ll eat value will increase all year long and typically a number of years in a row earlier than we do a pricing change,” says Swerczek. “[We don’t like to] increase the value of the ammo all year long after which decrease it different occasions all year long as a result of it may well create a yo-yo impact within the provide and demand chain, although there are different ammo corporations that do.”

After I requested Hornady for pricing information in the identical three cartridges, the corporate chosen its top-selling load in every. Observe that Hornady’s MSRPs are additionally listed a lot larger than what you possibly can truly purchase their ammo for. As an example, their 6.5 Creed has a present MSRP of $56 and is promoting for $39.99 on MidwayUSA proper now. The vital factor to concentrate to is the relative value of every load to previous years. 

This bucks the development above highlighted by Ammunition Depot, through which the value of bulk 9mm has steadily decreased. That’s partly resulting from completely different manufacturing requirements, says Swerczek. Hornady doesn’t mass-produce bulk ammo, and as a substitute focuses on premium masses with strict high quality management and accuracy protocols.

“The majority ammo you may get away with letting dimensional tolerances be a bit freer,” he says. “The accuracy spec is both a lot looser or non-existent. There is no such thing as a terminal efficiency expectation. You could possibly use cheaper, thinner brass which may not have as a lot energy as a thicker, extra premium cartridge case. You could possibly use the cheaper primers, the most cost effective propellant that’s gonna burn actually soiled. You may get away with doing all that stuff within the commodity ammo market. And that may undoubtedly have an effect on the fee, particularly whenever you’re making issues in enormous volumes.”

So in the event you’re a hunter or competitors shooter, you’re feeling the rising prices of products (extra on this in a minute) greater than ever earlier than. 

“You’re at a degree the place [premium] ammo is simply sadly dearer than it’s ever been,” says Swerczek. “We’re making high quality ammo like we at all times do, however the finish person is paying extra for it and never essentially getting any higher ammo than they did two years in the past. It’s simply merely that the enter prices have elevated considerably.”

The Components That Have an effect on Ammo Costs

There’s a complete host of things that contribute to the ultimate value of a field of ammo in your bodily or digital buying cart, so it’s powerful to establish a single wrongdoer behind a value enhance. Aside from pandemic-era panic-buying and value gouging by on-line scalpers, ammo business of us mentioned a pair key elements.

Provide Chain and Manufacturing Disruptions

On the entire, not one of the ammo-price spike indicators attribute of the ammo scarcity of some years in the past are current proper now. That features halted manufacturing and materials shortage.

Mark Oliva, the managing director of public affairs for the Nationwide Taking pictures Sports activities Basis, notes that producers have solely ramped up manufacturing for the reason that pandemic, with ammo makers like Remington coming again on line and different corporations working to increase their amenities. That’s excellent news for regular ammo costs.

“All of the element components can be found. There’s loads of brass being made. There’s loads of projectiles being made,” Oliva says. “Copper’s nonetheless obtainable. Lead continues to be obtainable. Even trying on the labor prices and the market fluctuations, all that stuff is pretty steady. There’s loads of manufacturing occurring within the corporations.” 

Gun Purchases

One other dependable indicator of ammo value will increase — gun purchases, as decided by the FBI’s Nationwide Instantaneous Prison Background Test system — stays steady.

“The massive hit to the [ammo] market on availability additionally occurred to coincide with an enormous spike in demand as we noticed the NICS numbers stand up” through the scarcity, Oliva provides. “We noticed extra folks shopping for weapons. And naturally, whenever you purchase a gun, you’re gonna want ammo to go together with it. … NICS numbers are nonetheless feathering off the highs that we noticed in 2020 and 2021. We’re nonetheless above the place we have been in 2019, however we actually aren’t at [pandemic levels], once we noticed 21 million background checks for the sale of a gun.”

Uncooked Materials Costs

Ammunition shouldn’t be immune from the results of inflation. As inflation will increase over time, so too does the value of on a regular basis objects like groceries and big-ticket purchases like pickup vehicles. This contains, after all, uncooked supplies that make ammunition manufacturing attainable. Whereas the value of metals like copper and lead actually fluctuate, they’re dearer than they have been 10 years in the past. 

The world value of copper (which is used to make brass) has elevated 63.9 % from March 2015 to March 2025. Equally, the worldwide value of lead has elevated about 13.3 % in that very same timeframe. However these costs fluctuate month to month, and whenever you step again and have a look at the massive image, lead is definitely cheaper than it was through the top of the pandemic and even again in 2018. Copper stays pricy.

“A major quantity of a cartridge bullet and cartridge case is copper,” says Swerczek. “Then there’s lead …. There is no such thing as a new lead mining occurring. So we’re on a set and recycled stock of lead [like from car batteries]. And though getting lead hasn’t essentially been an issue, the value of it undoubtedly has been. And so that you see these two drivers dramatically affect the price of loaded ammo.”

Along with that rising value of copper and lead, Swerczek lists the elevated value of plastic and cardboard packaging and freight. Primer costs have additionally tripled. 

“A decade in the past primers have been one to 2 cents apiece, possibly three cents a chunk for a match primer. Immediately it’s quite common to see 10 cents per primer. Now, we’re speaking in cents. However whenever you make hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition, it turns into fairly vital. And that has all come collectively to create an ideal storm the place it’s a must to enhance the price of the ammo.”

The International Powder Scarcity

Whereas manufacturing of projectiles, primers, and instances are buzzing alongside, there’s one supply-chain bottleneck for a key cartridge ingredient: powder. One key stat that’s been floating across the business is that powder costs have elevated by about 15 % this yr, with many producers scrambling to supply powder nonetheless they’ll.

That is for just a few causes, together with that there are simply two main powder crops within the nation: the Radford Military Ammunition Plant in Virginia and St. Mark’s Powder in Crawfordville, Florida. 

“The business leans actually closely on the St. Mark’s powder firm out of Florida [for spherical powders]. We actually do,” says Swerczek. “They’re an ideal accomplice [and] they do an exceptional job. However there are specific propellants that do sure jobs higher, so we undoubtedly lean on the propellants which can be imported as nicely.”

These single-based extruded propellants seem in merchandise just like the Hodgon Excessive Powder line and are sourced abroad from international locations like Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, and Norway. And ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, propellants have been notably difficult to supply from these European corporations. Reloaders have already felt the rise in the price of their powder for the reason that pandemic.

“Not solely are these propellants harder to get within the volumes that we require,”  says Swerczek, “however the fee to get them has gone up considerably as nicely.”

Steve Barzee, a veteran gun-counter salesman who has labored at mom-and-pop out of doors retailers within the St. Louis space for many years, says the price of his private reloading powder has tripled from $20 earlier than the pandemic to a brand new regular of about $60.

Inflation

One quirk of ammunition costs is that, in lots of instances, they really haven’t stored tempo with inflation. 

As the value of some supplies have elevated, producers have truly absorbed some manufacturing prices as a substitute of passing that value onto customers. That’s due, partially, to the truth that prospects haven’t been keen to pay exorbitant costs for ammunition now that ammo is extra extensively obtainable.

“What we’ve been in a position to do is soak up a good quantity of the [price] will increase during the last yr with inside efficiencies like driving down prices of transport by promoting extra ammunition,” Boss Shotshells proprietor Brandon Cerecke advised OL in February. “We’re additionally streamlining our manufacturing the place we will to be a bit leaner, so we don’t have to hold as a lot stock.”

Right here’s an instance based mostly on Nosler’s pricing information above. The MSRP on a field of Nosler 6.5 Creedmoor 140-grain Match ammo was about $45 in 2015. It’s about $54 proper now. Should you regulate for inflation, that field of ammo ought to truly value virtually $62. (Keep in mind that MSRPs are larger than the retail value of ammo; this load prices $45 a field on AmmunitionDepot.com proper now.)

So sure, the value tag on a few of your favourite masses proper now are completely larger than in 2015 — however so is the value of every thing else. 

Tariffs and Ammo Costs

The priority about the affect of tariffs on ammunition costs varies relying who you speak to. Wolgin, the CEO of Ammunition Depot, is basically unconcerned about tariffs impacting ammo costs. As a substitute, he says the most important threat could be panic shopping for.

“What bugs me is concern mongering, like once I see folks within the business making an attempt to stoke concern in folks, particularly after they don’t have to be afraid,” says Wolgin. “I noticed numerous messaging like, ‘Come purchase ammo now earlier than the costs go up due to tariffs.’ Which is a extremely handy advertising tactic, but it surely’s additionally not true.”

That’s for just a few causes, says Wolgin.

“The ammunition market in the US is usually a self-contained one. So there actually are worldwide manufacturers, and we import a few of them. However the overwhelming majority of the ammunition produced, offered, and used within the nation is made virtually from soup to nuts in the US. Typically we shouldn’t see any affect particularly from tariffs. We may even see different impacts. There’s a number of issues that may make the value of ammo go up [like inflation and panic buying]. However tariffs are in all probability not among the many main drivers of modifications within the ammunition pricing market.”

Different business of us are cautiously optimistic about ammo costs even amid ever-changing tariff information. Whereas  Oliva of the NSSF notes that tariffs are an “unknown issue,” most ammo price-spike hypothesis is simply that — hypothesis.

“There’s numerous rumors on the market,” says Oliva, “however I’m not discovering numerous reality behind that to indicate that ammo costs are headed for a spike or that we’re any sort of crunch for ammo like we noticed again in 2021 and 2022.”

The U.S. Imports Bismuth and Tungsten

An vital exception right here is unhazardous ammunition. Whereas Oliva notes that this “different ammunition” makes up simply 1 % of all of the ammunition manufactured in America, it’s an important marketplace for hunters. 

Simply as the value of copper and lead impacts hottest ammo costs, the manufacturing and value of bismuth, tungsten, and metal impacts the price of your duck masses. Roughly 1 / 4 of U.S. metal is imported, making it much less topic to tariff-related value hikes and, total, metal costs have dropped for the reason that pandemic spike. Bismuth is extra of a sore spot.

BOSS’ bread-and-butter, as an example, has been copper-plated bismuth masses. In Sept. 2021, through the top of nationwide ammo shortages and value spikes, a case of 200 of these 12-gauge 2 ¾ inch No. 5s value prospects $300. Immediately, that value is $425. That is an occasion the place the ammunition value has far outpaced inflation. 

So whereas BOSS was in a position to maintain some costs steady earlier this yr, the corporate additionally needed to put together to regulate different costs this yr by about 40 % “in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs,” says Cerecke. 

That’s due partially as a result of the U.S. stopped producing and refining bismuth in 1997, turning into “extremely import reliant” on the metallic, in accordance with the federal authorities.  As of 2023, China was liable for 80 % of bismuth manufacturing.

Worse, as China curbed its exports earlier this yr, inflicting the value of bismuth to skyrocket from $6.50 to $7 per pound to $55 a pound within the U.S. The same story is true for tungsten, which is used for TSS pellets. The value of tungsten in February 2025 was 15 % larger than it was in February 2024.

These commodity prices will probably result in extra value will increase down the road as corporations promote by their present stock and start making extra unhazardous shot.

Ammo Is Solely Going to Get Extra Costly

There are just a few key takeaways for ammo prospects. First, there aren’t any pink flags that time to a coming ammunition scarcity. If something, says Wolgin, prospects are chopping again on ammunition purchases proper now.

“What we’re seeing is the affect of falling shopper confidence. In order the buyer will get much less and fewer assured, they spend much less and fewer. And we’re undoubtedly noticing that [on AmmunitionDepot.com],” says Wolgin. “So it’s been a harder time, I feel for all retailers currently than it was for the final couple of years.”

Whereas Hornady is experiencing the same dip in buyer purchases, Swerczek thinks that’s often because ammo consumers really feel comparatively safe proper now.

“I’m guessing it’s that Trump’s in workplace, all people’s snug, they’re not panic-buying anymore, and subsequently gross sales are actually softer than that they had been, say, by the election cycle. Plus, I don’t assume the speed of gross sales in the present day is the brand new regular as a result of folks have stockpiled ammo [during Covid]. I feel within the subsequent couple years or subsequent yr, folks will shoot that ammo after which we’ll set up what the brand new regular is. The costs have gone up and there’s not a complete lot anybody can do about that, however I do assume that they’re assured that the ammo shall be there after they want it.”

If there’s a big decline in the price of uncooked supplies like copper and lead, says Swerczek, he does assume there could possibly be a modest dip in ammo costs down the road. However, everybody agrees, we’re not going to see any vital drop in value — and we’re by no means going again to pre-pandemic costs.

“Nosler lowered our costs considerably to start out 2025,” says Mundy. “So we hope to have the ability to maintain these costs — or costs very shut to those — for some time. As our prices got here down, we felt it was the precise factor to do to make our merchandise extra accessible, and to move on a few of the financial savings we have now seen from elevated effectivity and decrease costs of a few of the elements.”

Learn Subsequent: Right here’s What the Ammo Scarcity Revealed In regards to the Business

Waterfowlers specifically ought to anticipate costs to stay excessive.

“When you’ve got the cash and you’ve got the house and you’ve got the will, go purchase ammo,” says Wolgin, who emphasizes that his recommendation isn’t rooted in fear-mongering, however merely in predictions for rising prices. “I don’t anticipate costs to go down from right here. I feel they’ll go up, however I don’t know when, I don’t understand how quick. These are usually not issues that my crystal ball has advised me on today.”